The Politics of the Improbable

This is a somewhat heavy article, but it is an effort to explain many of the gyrations of nations in the dance of history. Stratfor is an intelligence service to which I subscribe.

Years ago there was a book written called "The Game of Nations" whose thesis was that governments often did not play to win, but simply not to lose. The comments below would seemingly reflect a similar conclusion, one that is difficult for the average American to comprehend as our culture breeds competitiveness and rewards winners, albeit in an expanding capitalistic system, even losers often wind up better for the struggle.

Remember “The Mouse That Roared” ? That was an imaginary tale of a minute country declaring war on the US and then surrendering before a shot was fired. Then came the flow of aid from the benevolent winner to resuscitate the loser. Needless to say that loser wound up much improved provided that the leaders of the minute nation did not steal all the aid money. This year the US will spend $ 20 billion in “foreign aid” . . . essentially to maintain a status quo.

And how different it is when individuals interact and compete to win.

I am always using the analogy as to what is different between the coolie and the truck driver ? The answer, of course, is the truck and that truck with all its improvements came into being as a result of continuing entrepreneurial effort to succeed in a competitive marketplace.

The derivative benefit is that the coolie is taken off the street into an air conditioned cab. He has to learn the skills to operate this behemoth, but he is well paid for these skills. His life is substantively better as a result.

Would that our politicians would understand that simplistic reality, but that might cede the power of the purse to each individual. Martin observed not so long ago that he regards all politicians as ones who are on a power trip, who are seeking control and whose end goal is self-enrichment. And yet we continue to allow them to pass laws or to write regulations that only ultimately increase their intervention into our lives.

If I seem to be pontificating, it is probably because I am, but I would like you all to reflect on articles like these when I send them and on my comments. Any and all feedback is encouraged.

You can also read the full article here: Stratfor Article

Semper Paratus

The Coast Guard lives by this motto . . . "Semper Paratus" is Latin for "Always Prepared".

And so it must be for us as 2008 can well be a turbulent and volatile year:

- The international arena is dicey at best what with the ongoing challenge of Iraq, the threat of a de-stabilized Pakistan, an uneasy truce with Iran, an aggressive Russia and in many locales, the madness of jihad unleashed against civilian populations. The fanaticism of a few has created a new war for the hearts and minds of people and the end objective is the subjugation of all to their will;

- Economically there is a precarious balance between ongoing growth and recession and this uncertainty will create significant volatility in the markets;

- Politically the quest for the nominations begins today and for the first time in many years there is no incumbent, president or vice president, seeking the office.

Thus we must be wary and prepared in order to navigate these treacherous waters.