Thoughts From a Generation

There Are Days To Be Thankful . . .

2009-04-07T17:42:00.001-07:00

These are trying times . . . a sluggish economy . . . atrophy in lending entities . . . and a remarkable loss of confidence in the populace . . . the old distinction between recession and depression is narrowing: "A recession is when my neighbor loses his job; a depression is when I lose mine." Last month 693,000 people got pink slips, aka a politically correct "reduction in force".
And there are those of us who are pondering what a trillion really is . . . a thousand billion to be sure, but how much is that ? For me a trillion became real when I found out that one trillion seconds ago man could neither read nor write . . . Jesus would not be born for another 29,000 years nor would the pyramids have been under construction . . . for a trillion seconds ago is actually, including leap years, some 31,ooo years ago.
But rather than worrying about the trillions that are being spent in various experiments to jump start the economy, I, we, had an experience last Friday that was at once harrowing and at the same time wondrous. Son Martin had a large plate of mushrooms for lunch while meeting with a prospective boss. Discussions and planning carried on late into the afternoon and then he turned for Coronado and family.
Only on the way from La Jolla to downtown, he started to develop sharp pains in his stomach that increased as he came the ramp of the Coronado bridge. He felt that he would be home in a few minutes and continued to drive.
By the mid-point of the bridge he was sick, sweating and hurting. He did have the presence of mind to move into the right hand lane. Almost at the end of the bridge he lost control of the car, an older BMW, went over the curb at an estimated 60 miles per hour, through some bushes, down a 6 foot drop and just past a tree and a lamp pole before careening across a street and coming to rest in a planting area adjacent to a park where young kids were playing. The hand of God had to be guiding him.
He was taken to the emergency room of the hospital and was subjected to a battery of tests and was kept under observation for 24 hours. His only injury was a black eye . . . and not a bad one at that.
So we are left with the thought of what did we do to deserve such luck in a situation that could have been at worst his death or even a lifetime of paralysis. We feel blessed, we are thankful . . . ever so thankful to have been spared what might have been an exquisite agony triggered by the death or disability of a child. Thank you, Lord . . . we owe you one !

There Are Days To Be Thankful . . .

2009-04-07T17:42:00.000-07:00

Musings

2009-02-27T15:31:00.000-08:00

It is getting progressively darker each morning when I leave the house for my morning exercise or yoga; however, it is even darker yet when I look at the Dow Jones Averages or read of the impending failures of some of our largest institutions. The de-leveraging of America is going to be a painful process and government meddling is probably only going to raise the price and to extend the duration.

There are many “villains” that have contributed to this precipitous demise; politicians, investment bankers and management have all played a role, but if one had to pin the tail on one donkey, it would be that “to borrow short to lend long” is a continuing prescription for trouble. Ours is a consumer driven economy; 70 % of the gross domestic product is attributable to consumer spending. The consumer, for many years, has been seduced by those who provided easy credit. In fact, many viewed the equity in their homes as a virtual ATM machine.

The politicians championed the lovely though that all should own a house. This mantra became almost an entitlement and who was going to oppose that notion ? It would be un-American to be anti – homeownership. The Wall Street got involved with a basketful of alphabet acronyms, all highly rated by monocline insurers who were paid a princely sum to issue triple A credit ratings. The SIVs, the CDOs and others were packaged attractively for sale, ( possibly to disguise the fraud that existed in most of the instruments ), and were sold to people all over the world who were seeking “just a little higher yield” to please themselves or their masters. And managements abandoned conservative borrowing practices in favor of always seeking the lowest cost source; after all, that was the paradigm being taught at all the business schools. Even states and cities joined the rush to lowest cost borrowing. Collectively they forgot the “time money reciprocal” . . . life was all too wonderful . . . we had survived the “tech bubble” and although 9/11 was a gruesome tragedy, this chapter of the war was being played out on others’ turf.

So the balloon was filled until it started to leak at some seams . . . not to worry, a little rubber cement in the form of federal support, ( our money, of course ), would seal the leaks. But it hasn’t and the tab is now approaching $ 1.5 trillion and that will add 10 % or more to what was already called by many a back breaking burden when coupled with the unfunded liability of Social Security and Medicare.

Whether it is just after midnight or 4:30 AM is yet unknown, but 2009 does not look to be a recovering year. Unemployment may go to 9 % and the “unintended consequences” of government intervention or policy mistakes could deepen the recession.

However, there will be a recovery . . . it would come faster were politicians not so concerned with easing everyone's pain with someone else's money. It is clear now that there is a housing glut in only five states: California, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan and Florida. And to understand how harmful media can be, their trumpeting of the housing disaster would have everyone believe that the whole country is suffering. It also does not help to hear our politicians say that we are headed over a cliff unless we authorize the spending of an additional $ 400 billion, ( a number so big that few can comprehend ).

But in answer to the query: "Will this expenditure work", the stock answer is that: "No one knows", a comment that is hardly a confidence builder in the general public.

The Stimulus Fiasco

2009-02-26T11:05:00.000-08:00

When will government ever realize that the only sure . . . and proven . . . way to cure a sick economy is to lower taxes and to provide incentives for investment ? The random splashing of extraordinary amounts of money around under the guise of stimulus is simply another way of redistributing wealth through welfare and earmarks. And to generate these funds by burdening our children and grandchildren with a crushing debt load is virtually criminal. The orgy of the past was fueled by leverage. The pain of deleveraging America should be borne by those who participated in this Nantucket sleigh ride, not by the innocent and the unborn.

Muggins at 101

2009-01-08T17:52:00.000-08:00

The sisters, Edith and Prudence, each have specific memories of their father: Edith has happy thoughts; Prudence remembers his trait of "thoroughness" in everything that he did
As have I . . . a man of principle and a true patriot . . . I always wonder about his enlistment in the Marines in May of 1941; 'twas a valiant act, but what of a relatively young family and a still struggling business both of whom were dependent upon him . . . and he was off, not to war, but to anticipate a war with Germany that may have been inevitable, but certainly was not upon us . . . he traded a Laird & Company suit for a second lieutenant's fatigues and he only managed that because, at 33, he was too old for the peacetime Corps so he had to present special credentials: an ability to speak Malay . . . he had learned some basics from a cook aboard the schooner Chance in 1929/1930, but no one in the Marines knew any at all so he prevailed.
When I asked him why he joined the Marines . . . He, an Army brat and son of a cavalry officer who once fought the Indians out of Fort Huachuca, Arizona in the 1890s . . . Daddy's answer was always that in the Army many died due to the incompetence of their commanding officers . . . that did not happen in the Marines . . .
The irony of that statement was that in the island hopping campaign in the South Pacific, Daddy was G-2, head of intelligence for the Third Marines, and had to send out scouts each evening to ascertain where the Japs were. The scouts were young, 18 to 20 year olds, and often wound up wounded, or occasionally dead, if they ran into a group of Japanese . . . yet the intelligence was critical to forming the battle plan for the following day . . . one of his best scouts was a lad from Oklahoma who carried an air cooled submachine gun that weighed, with ammunition, about 50 pounds instead of a rifle because of the additional firepower it gave him . . . Daddy rationalized the dead and wounded as unfortunate, but necessary, casualties to protect the rest of the brigade . . . I cannot imagine having to do that and then to live with the memories.
I am sure that he is happy to have Babe with him. I miss her too . . .

Muggins at 100

2009-01-08T17:48:00.000-08:00

MF Sr. would have been 100 years old yesterday . . . old in human years, but not even a blip in sidereal time.
As a sidebar, I never have forgotten Adrian Berry’s book, "The Next Ten Thousand Years" wherein he spoke of black holes and the expected life of our solar system, estimated to be 9-11 billion years. We are around the halfway point at this juncture. Somehow it gives a unique perspective as to how insignificant man really is in all his pursuits, worries and even dreams.
But were the Colonel alive today, ‘tis my thought that he would not be that happy with the drift of the US. We are creating a culture of entitlement by the simple mechanic of the inevitability of gradualism . . . a little change here, a breach of a principle there and soon we will be swept away by the two demons of multiculturalism and moral relativism.
The jihadists need only wait; we are well on the way to doing ourselves in . . . much as most dynasties have in the past: Greece, Rome, Alexander the Great . . . by what measure are we immune from such a collapse ?
And yet this is a country for which Daddy fought, and ultimately died. Had he not spent four years in the South Pacific, it would be my guess that he might have lived well beyond his 74 years.
And yet, to me, his legacy endures: his stern morality, his unshakeable principles and his ultimate civility. He was the epitome of "duty, honor and country". He was far from perfect, nor are any of us, but I have profound respect for how he lived his life and what his contribution was to the world.
R.I.P. . . . Muggins . . . We shall soldier on . . .

Death in the Family

2009-01-08T14:20:00.000-08:00

Rickenbaughs:
Caroline, Kent and son Bart are gone . . . why do the good die young ? It is a tragic and devastating loss for the family, for the City of Denver and for all those who knew them in their mutliple capacities and roles. My last memory of them was at a dinner that we had at Paseo Delicias in Rancho Santa Fe. They were making one of their periodic visits to Pauma Valley and we agreed to meet midway for dinner. In their typical way they were early since the last time we had met at ancho Bernardo and they had gotten lost getting there and were late. Ever considerate of others, they were this time early for they had left time to get lost and had not.
That evening was typical of any visit with them. Kent was a gentle man, a gruff Westerner with an ever-present sense of humor and a self-deprecating nature. Caroline was upbeat about her many activities and their children. Ever animated, curious, adventurous and fun, Caroline was always the accelerator; Kent was the governor, a steadying force. They were an awesome combination, a joy to be around.

The Politics of the Improbable

2008-04-23T19:58:00.000-07:00

This is a somewhat heavy article, but it is an effort to explain many of the gyrations of nations in the dance of history. Stratfor is an intelligence service to which I subscribe.

Years ago there was a book written called "The Game of Nations" whose thesis was that governments often did not play to win, but simply not to lose. The comments below would seemingly reflect a similar conclusion, one that is difficult for the average American to comprehend as our culture breeds competitiveness and rewards winners, albeit in an expanding capitalistic system, even losers often wind up better for the struggle.

Remember “The Mouse That Roared” ? That was an imaginary tale of a minute country declaring war on the US and then surrendering before a shot was fired. Then came the flow of aid from the benevolent winner to resuscitate the loser. Needless to say that loser wound up much improved provided that the leaders of the minute nation did not steal all the aid money. This year the US will spend $ 20 billion in “foreign aid” . . . essentially to maintain a status quo.

And how different it is when individuals interact and compete to win.

I am always using the analogy as to what is different between the coolie and the truck driver ? The answer, of course, is the truck and that truck with all its improvements came into being as a result of continuing entrepreneurial effort to succeed in a competitive marketplace.

The derivative benefit is that the coolie is taken off the street into an air conditioned cab. He has to learn the skills to operate this behemoth, but he is well paid for these skills. His life is substantively better as a result.

Would that our politicians would understand that simplistic reality, but that might cede the power of the purse to each individual. Martin observed not so long ago that he regards all politicians as ones who are on a power trip, who are seeking control and whose end goal is self-enrichment. And yet we continue to allow them to pass laws or to write regulations that only ultimately increase their intervention into our lives.

If I seem to be pontificating, it is probably because I am, but I would like you all to reflect on articles like these when I send them and on my comments. Any and all feedback is encouraged.

You can also read the full article here: Stratfor Article

Semper Paratus

2008-01-03T10:01:00.000-08:00

The Coast Guard lives by this motto . . . "Semper Paratus" is Latin for "Always Prepared".

And so it must be for us as 2008 can well be a turbulent and volatile year:

- The international arena is dicey at best what with the ongoing challenge of Iraq, the threat of a de-stabilized Pakistan, an uneasy truce with Iran, an aggressive Russia and in many locales, the madness of jihad unleashed against civilian populations. The fanaticism of a few has created a new war for the hearts and minds of people and the end objective is the subjugation of all to their will;

- Economically there is a precarious balance between ongoing growth and recession and this uncertainty will create significant volatility in the markets;

- Politically the quest for the nominations begins today and for the first time in many years there is no incumbent, president or vice president, seeking the office.

Thus we must be wary and prepared in order to navigate these treacherous waters.

Icons of Christianity

2007-04-07T17:15:00.000-07:00

Easter Sunday is a day of celebration: "He is risen ! Alleluia" For the devout it is a day that commemorates the triumph of Jesus. He is now clearly more than man, more than a prophet; it is proof that he is the Son of God. In the chronicling of his triumph and his brief days on earth there has grown up a forest of icons that are believed to confirm his deity and to reinforce to the people that his teachings are sanctioned by God.